Movie
4 hours ago
4 Mikey Madison in Anora. (Photo Illustration: Yahoo News, photo: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection)
.
The 2025 Oscar nominations have finally arrived, and we’re now in the throes of awards season. After a year of watching new releases, tracking their buzz and weighing their chances of taking home an Academy Award, we now know what the field looks like.
Yahoo Entertainment created a power rankings system to predict which of the 10 Best Picture nominees is most likely to win the top honor on Hollywood’s biggest night. The formula synthesizes award nominations and predictions, critics’ predictions and general fanfare. We then assign scores to each movie based on these factors, and rank the films according to which has the highest score. The Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard is updated weekly with new predictions. Read more about our methodology here.
For our fourth official Leaderboard ranking, Anora has a commanding lead for the second week in a row after dethroning Emilia Pérez. Though the latter has by far the most Oscar nominations (13), it’s this awards season’s villain. The film faced immense backlash after controversial X posts from the film’s lead actress surfaced. Wicked is holding steady in second place, thanks mostly to considerable search interest. Oscars voting period began Feb. 11 and ends Feb. 18.
Over the weekend, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards shook up the middle of the pack. Conclave took home the biggest award of the night, catapulting it to No. 3 on the Leaderboard, while a lack of significant award wins and tweaked predictions from media outlets sent The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown further down the list.
Oscar nominations were repeatedly delayed following the devastating fires in Los Angeles, giving academy members an extra few days to cast their votes. The ceremony is scheduled for March 2.
Until then, we’ll be releasing a new Leaderboard each week, explaining the shifts and any surprises that arise. Let’s dive in.
1. Anora (=)
Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison in Anora. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: A New York exotic dancer falls for the son of a Russian oligarch who offers her a chance at a new life, but his family tries to intervene.
Vitals: Romantic comedy drama, 2 hours and 19 minutes, rated R.
The case for Best Picture: People have been talking about Anora since it won top honors at the Cannes Film Festival in May. Though it racked up dozens of nominations from smaller awards bodies like the Gotham Awards, including honors for its star, Mikey Madison, and supporting actor Yura Borisov, it didn’t take home any Golden Globes. The film is nominated for six Oscars, which is fewer than other films on this list, but they’re in important categories that often signal a Best Picture win, like Best Director.
The cast is nominated for the top SAG Award. The indie movie did surprisingly well at the box office and continues to drive conversation about sex work. Writer-director Sean Baker and Madison’s decision not to use an intimacy coordinator on set led to some backlash.
Baker, who’s currently living out his own Cinderella story, was part of a massive momentum shift for Anora — perhaps one of the biggest in Oscars history. The film won the top prize at three of the major Best Picture precursors — the Critics Choice Awards, PGA Awards and DGA Awards — in one weekend. Anora lost the Best Film prize at the BAFTAs, which is noteworthy but not as significant as its wins from previous weeks, but still snagged two other trophies at the ceremony, including Leading Actress for Madison.
The film was considered a frontrunner at the very start of the season, and now it’s holding its place atop our ranking with a massive lead in points.
How to watch: Anora is available on video on demand.
2. Wicked (=)
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande in Wicked. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Universal Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: In this long-awaited Broadway musical adaptation, a magical woman who has been mistreated all her life for having green skin forms an unlikely bond with a popular student.
Vitals: Musical fantasy, 2 hours and 40 minutes, rated PG.
The case for Best Picture: Wicked is the most popular Best Picture nominee this year, enchanting audiences in theaters and generating countless memes through a massive press tour that we’re still holding space for. It was up for four Golden Globes but left with just one honoring its box office performance. It earned an impressive 10 Oscar nods.
Wicked has been lauded for its technical prowess and had 11 Critics Choice Award nominations, of which it won three, including Best Director for Jon M. Chu, who was snubbed by the Oscars. The film was nominated for seven BAFTAs and walked away with two, for Costume Design and Production Design. It also racked up acting nominations all over the place for its stars Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey — including a SAG Award nod for Best Ensemble.
As the biggest film on this list at the box office, Wicked is holding strong at No. 1 in the search interest category, keeping it top of mind for voters and the general public alike.
How to watch: Wicked is in theaters and available on video on demand.
3. Conclave (+3)
Ralph Fiennes in Conclave. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: As a group of cardinals assemble at the Vatican to select a new pope, scandals and gossip create factions and challenge their faith and relationships.
Vitals: Mystery thriller, 2 hours, rated PG.
The case for Best Picture: A movie about choosing a new pope might seem quiet and understated, but Conclave is surprisingly melodramatic and has ruffled a few feathers with controversy. The film has had a steady presence in the awards conversation and is a top pick among critics, amassing a number of nominations for lead actor Ralph Fiennes and supporting actress Isabella Rossellini, who are included in the film’s eight Oscar nods, and a Best Ensemble nod at the SAG Awards.
It was tied with Wicked for the most Critics Choice Award nominations with 11, and won two for Best Acting Ensemble and Best Adapted Screenplay. Director Edward Berger has also picked up major nominations, including one from the DGA, though he hasn’t won thus far. Conclave’s biggest win going into this weekend was Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes, but the movie pulled off a massive upset by winning Best Film and three other awards at the BAFTAs.
It is now the third-most-predicted film on the list to win the Best Picture Oscar, trailing Anora and The Brutalist.
How to watch: Conclave is streaming on Peacock.
4. Emilia Pérez (=)
Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: A lawyer helps a cartel leader fake her death and undergo gender-affirming surgeries. Over the years, a higher calling and family entanglements complicate the plan.
Vitals: Spanish-language musical crime comedy, 2 hours and 12 minutes, rated R.
The case for Best Picture: This year’s awards season’s villain is Emilia Pérez, a film festival darling that hasn’t appealed as much to general audiences, despite being available on Netflix. Its unusual tone and subject matter are unlike any other film on this list, and that seems to be resonating with awards voters. It earned a whopping 13 Oscar nods.
It was the biggest winner at the Golden Globes and earned a slew of major nominations for acting and directing for the SAG and DGA awards. It has been memed and picked apart on social media and fell slightly out of favor with critics predicting a Best Picture winner.
Shortly after Oscar nominations were announced, a major controversy befell Emilia Pérez and Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays the title character. Several of her past X posts have surfaced that critics called racist, Islamophobic and xenophobic. She then deleted her account and posted an apology on Instagram, stating that the tweets were taken out of context, that she is “not racist” and seemingly implying that the controversy was part of a smear campaign against her. In an hourlong CNN interview that was reportedly not authorized by Netflix, she said she felt “crucified and stoned without a trial.”
Netflix, the film’s other stars and director Jacques Audiard have now responded, and though the impact of the controversy is still taking shape, the Hollywood Reporter says the fallout has “completely upended the Oscar race.” Still, supporting actress Zoe Saldaña has continued to dominate her category, winning big at the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs.
How to watch: Emilia Pérez is streaming on Netflix.
5. The Brutalist (-2)
Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Lol Crawley/A24/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: The film follows a Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor who flees Hungary and travels to the United States in search of the American Dream.
Vitals: Epic historical drama, 3 hours and 34 minutes, rated R.
The case for Best Picture: It’s a massive movie in every possible way, from its heavy themes to its lengthy runtime that includes an intermission to the 300 pounds of film it’s printed on. It was made on a meager $10 million budget and was difficult for wider audiences to see until just recently when all the buzz surrounding its three Golden Globe wins turned it into a cinematic event. It is nominated for 10 Oscars.
The cast was snubbed of a Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards. Writer-director Brady Corbet remains a frontrunner for Best Director, though, having won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA Award and the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival. He snagged a DGA nomination as well, though he didn’t win. Directing awards tend to shed a little more light on possible Best Picture winners than acting awards.
The Brutalist was previously the film with the most predictions from reputable industry sources to win Best Picture but has since slipped in the rankings as experts shift their prognostication toward Anora following its impressive awards run. It’s now No. 2 in the prediction category, which was a huge blow to its overall ranking on our Leaderboard.
It also faced backlash for its use of an artificial intelligence tool in post-production to perfect minute pronunciation details in the Hungarian accents of stars Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones, who both received Oscar nods. The film’s editor, Dávid Jancsó, said it was “mainly just replacing letters here and there” and maintained that “there's nothing in the film using AI that hasn’t been done before.” Corbet addressed the backlash as well, saying, “Adrien and Felicity’s performances are completely their own.”
How to watch: The Brutalist is in theaters.
6. Dune: Part Two (+1)
Chalamet and Zendaya in Dune: Part Two. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: Paul Atreides works with the Fremen on the desert planet of Arrakis to prevent a doomed future that only he can see.
Vitals: Science fiction epic, 2 hours and 46 minutes, rated PG-13.
The case for Best Picture: The sequel to the 2021 science fiction adaptation earned a Best Picture nomination and plenty of technical nods just like the first film, but the fact that Dune: Part Two had a delayed release back in March 2024 might mean it’s not fresh in voters’ minds. It's nominated for five Oscars, but none of them are for acting, directing or writing.
It doesn’t help that lead actor Timothée Chalamet has been campaigning for another film — A Complete Unknown — for which he’s a Best Actor frontrunner. The massive box office hit was also critically acclaimed, but its actors and director Denis Villeneuve have been snubbed by the Golden Globes, SAG and DGA.
Though it may seem like there was a surge for Dune: Part Two as it rose in the rankings, it’s actually been holding pretty steady as other movies surge around it, thanks to awards and shifting predictions. It even dropped slightly in the search interest rankings from No. 2 to No. 3.
How to watch: Dune: Part Two is streaming on Max.
7. A Complete Unknown (-2)
Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: The film charts the rise of a young Bob Dylan as he skyrockets to fame and changes the course of American music.
Vitals: Biographical drama, 2 hours and 21 minutes, rated R.
The case for Best Picture: Dylan fans have mixed feelings about the biopic, but as awards season presses on, this might be the underdog film that overperforms at the Oscars. It didn’t win any Golden Globes, but it earned huge nominations for the SAG, PGA and DGA awards, gaining traction going into Oscar nominations, for which it amassed eight.
Star Timothée Chalamet has been promoting the film in fun and unconventional ways, from guest-hosting College GameDay to pulling double duty as the host and musical guest on Saturday Night Live. He has yet to win a major award for his role, though, as the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs have now passed him by.
Last week, A Complete Unknown was the second-most-predicted winner of Best Picture among critics considered for the Best Picture Leaderboard, but it is now fourth.
How to watch: A Complete Unknown is in theaters. It will be available on video on demand Feb. 25.
8. The Substance (=)
Demi Moore in The Substance. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: MUBI / Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: After facing a devastating blow to her career on her 50th birthday, a performer experiments with a “substance” to obtain an enhanced version of herself.
Vitals: Satirical horror, 2 hours and 21 minutes, rated R.
The case for Best Picture: Horror movies have historically been overlooked by the Oscars, but this could be the genre’s chance to break out — with a gory body horror satire starring Demi Moore. The film made a huge splash at film festivals and earned accolades for writer-director Coralie Fargeat, including Golden Globe nominations for Best Director and Best Screenplay. An Oscar nomination wouldn’t have been shocking, but for a genre film, five is impressive.
It had a surprisingly strong run in theaters before shifting to streaming on Mubi, and came back for a limited time following its awards season success. Moore went viral after delivering a heartfelt acceptance speech for her surprise Golden Globe win, which clearly kept the academy’s attention. Her frontrunner status is no longer such a surprise after she won Best Actress at the Critics Choice Awards. She didn’t win the BAFTA, but academy voters don’t always take the British awards into consideration.
How to watch: The Substance is streaming on Mubi.
9. I'm Still Here (+1)
Valentina Herszage and Fernanda Torres in I'm Still Here. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: The Brazilian film follows a woman and her five children after their lives change dramatically when her politician husband disappears. It’s based on Marcelo Rubens Paiva’s memoir.
Vitals: Portuguese-language political biographical drama, 2 hours and 16 minutes, rated PG-13.
The case for Best Picture: By far the most surprising nominee in the bunch, I’m Still Here clearly gained momentum after Fernanda Torres’s surprise Golden Globe win for Best Actress. It has three Oscar nominations, including Best Actress and Best International Feature Film.
After the Oscar nominees were announced, footage of Torres appearing in blackface in a 2008 sketch for the Brazilian comedy show Fantastico resurfaced. Torres apologized, saying, “Thanks to better cultural understanding and important but incomplete achievements in this century, it’s very clear now in our country and everywhere that blackface is never acceptable.”
Before her own controversy unfolded, Emilia Pérez star Gascón accused the “social media team that works around” I’m Still Here of spreading hate about her and the film. Gascón clarified that she didn’t disparage Torres herself — that would have violated the academy’s rules.
Increased search interest in I’m Still Here led to its leap ahead of Nickel Boys on the Leaderboard. I’m Still Here is now in theatrical wide release, just as Nickel Boys is headed out.
How to watch: I’m Still Here is in theaters.
10. Nickel Boys (-1)
Ethan Herisse and Brandon Wilson in Nickel Boys. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer/Courtesy Everett Collection)
What to know: An innocent mistake shatters a Black teenager’s dreams of attending college and lands him at Nickel Academy, an abusive and segregated reformatory, where he forms a friendship with a more pessimistic student.
Vitals: Historical drama, 2 hours and 20 minutes, rated PG-13.
The case for Best Picture: Based on a Pulitzer Prize-winning book from Colson Whitehead that was inspired by real-life horrors, Nickel Boys examines abusive reform schools — a topic that’s been top of mind given recent legislature about regulating the troubled-teen industry.
It’s director RaMell Ross’s first narrative feature film, but his style is unlike any other — it’s shot from the point of view of its two young leads, focusing on what they see rather than their faces. It was nominated for a Golden Globe and five Critics Choice Awards but didn’t take home any trophies either night. Ross won the DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Theatrical Feature Film. Though the film missed out on directing and cinematography Oscar nods, it’s still up for two trophies.
How to watch: Nickel Boys is in theaters. It will begin streaming on MGM+ Feb. 28.
![Presidents Day Weekend Car Sales [2021 Edition]](https://www.findthebestcarprice.com/wp-content/uploads/Presidents-Day-Weekend-car-sales.jpg "Presidents Day Weekend Car Sales [2021 Edition]")
English (United States)