Are Aston Villa in title hunt - and should Arsenal start to worry?

Unai Emery continues to deny Aston Villa are in the title race, even as his old club Arsenal start to look vulnerable at the top of the Premier League.

Villa's head coach is playing down his current side's chances at a time when their form has become impossible to ignore.

A dramatic 2-1 win over Arsenal on Saturday moved Villa just three points behind the Gunners, with Manchester City joining both in the top three.

Villa were in a strikingly similar position two years ago but finished fourth - 23 points behind champions City.

With over a third of the Premier League season gone, there is a case to be made that Emery's team should be taken seriously in the title talk this time.

They have beaten Arsenal and City at home and have now won nine of their past 10 in the league - seven straight in all competitions - so why would Villa not be in the mix?

Former Tottenham midfielder Danny Murphy points out one major factor that could count against them.

"I don't see them as title contenders, only because of a lack of strength in depth. But their best XI can beat anybody," Murphy said.

Defeat at Villa Park was Arsenal's first loss in 18 games - since going down 1-0 at Liverpool in August - and significantly weakens what had looked a commanding position at the top.

With just two wins from their past five Premier League games, Arsenal fans could be starting to get nervous.

Villa had an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.27 on Saturday, the highest by any team against the Gunners in the Premier League this season, and created five big chances, including the goals for Matty Cash and Buendia.

They have have scored 5.45 more goals [22 in total] than their xG [16.55] and conceded 5.83 fewer goals [15] than their xGA [20.83] in the Premier League this season.

The latter metric - expected goals against - measures how many goals a team would be expected to concede based on the chances created against them.

Villa's director of football operations and Emery's trusted lieutenant Damian Vidagany wrote on X after last week's 1-0 win over Wolves that it did not matter if Villa scored from the moon, just that they were getting the points.

Buendia is now Villa's joint top Premier League scorer with Donyell Malen on four goals - Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers and Cash have three - so Villa are also not relying on one player to put the ball in the net.

They may be outperforming expected goals figures at both ends of the pitch, but few would begrudge Villa their place near the summit.

No team has won more Premier League games since the start of March than Villa.

"I am not thinking in it [the title]," said Emery. "I know 38 matches is very difficult. We are not a contender. If we were in game 35, perhaps we can speak differently.

"Three points gives us a lot of confidence and it gives us a lot of feelings together about how we are doing in this way. The table, we are feeling better about it than two months ago.

"[I am] so proud of how we are responding and how we focus on each match, also in Europe. The players are the protagonists."

It is a long way from Villa's early-season struggles when they failed to win any of their opening six games - including going out to Brentford in the Carabao Cup.

They did not score in the Premier League until their sixth game, a 1-1 draw against 10-man Sunderland, but since that point in late September they have won 13 out of 15 games.

Emery acknowledged their form is the best he could have expected, having been third bottom when leaving the Stadium of Light on 21 September.

He said: "How we are now, I am so proud of the players, how they are taking the challenges we are sending in the dressing room. But it is the reality, the reality is everything we are achieving, but the reality as well is the difficulties we are going to face.

"The Premier League is very difficult and our target in 38 matches, we will see it, but of course now we are feeling good and feeling strong and feeling comfortable in the position we are."

Arsenal have had to contend with injuries to key players this season.

Against Villa, the absences looked to be taking a toll on the Gunners.

The treatment room has been busy this season, and players who have spent time out of action have included William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Noni Madueke, Cristhian Mosquera and Viktor Gyokeres.

Defenders Saliba, Mosquera and Gabriel are all unavailable for now, which meant that Jurrien Timber, who usually plays right-back, had to fill in at centre-back at Villa.

Gyokeres, building up his fitness, came on to replace makeshift striker Mikel Merino at Villa Park, but the £64m striker failed to make an impact.

Leandro Trossard has been a standout for Arsenal this season but he too is coming back from injury. Despite scoring the goal that brought Arsenal level after his introduction at half-time, he was substituted himself with four minutes of normal time left on Saturday.

Manager Mikel Arteta was asked in his pre-match press conference whether the Premier League title had become Arsenal's to lose.

Following the loss to Villa, the questions are about whether Arsenal are in poor form.

That is the nature of the competitiveness of the Premier League, but there could be signs of worry for Arsenal, even if Arteta expects them to cope with the pressure.

"It's five months into the competition and so far we have coped. We are going to have to prove we can cope again, again, again for another six months," he said.

"That is the level. People who think at this moment we are going to be 10 points clear live in a different world.

"That is the league - you go to Old Trafford, you go to St James' Park, you go to Chelsea, you come here, we have been in a lot of difficult grounds.

"The result could have been different, the reality is not. We went 18 games unbeaten and still we are there.

"That is the level of the league. That is the opportunity that we have ahead of us and that's it. Now it is time to bounce back, they have given me all the right reasons to think we are going to perform at the same level.

"We move on. We will learn from today and it will make us a better team."

This is a shaky spell, with the loss to Villa coming after draws against Chelsea and Sunderland.

Arsenal had an impressive recent win over Tottenham and also a comfortable victory over Brentford, but their once dominant lead has been shredded.

With a record of not converting strong starts into trophies, Arsenal fans might well be getting nervous, but the message from the manager is to stay calm.