Energy price cap fall expected as temperatures plunge

2 hours ago 20

Kevin PeacheyCost of living correspondent

Getty Images Man walks on a road partially cleared of snow, with a covering of snow on trees in the foreground and a barn and fields in the backgroundGetty Images

Regulator Ofgem will announce the next energy price cap later on Friday, with prices for millions of households expected to fall slightly at the height of winter.

Gas and electricity bills remain relatively high, and the sudden drop in temperature has brought the costs to the forefront of people's minds.

The next price cap will take effect at the start of January, and affect those on variable tariffs in England, Wales and Scotland.

Ofgem will announce the details at 07:00 GMT. Analysts have predicted a 1% fall in prices.

The cap sets the maximum price that can be charged for each unit of gas and electricity, not the total bill - so those who use more energy, pay more.

A 2% increase in October to the end of December means a household using a typical amount of energy is currently paying £1,755 a year.

A bar chart titled “How the energy price cap has changed”, showing the energy price cap for a typical household on a price-capped, dual-fuel tariff paying by direct debit, from January 2022 to December 2025. The figure was £1,216 based on typical usage in January 2022. This rose to a high of £4,059 in January 2023, although the Energy Price Guarantee limited bills to £2,380 for a typical household between October 2022 and June 2023. Bills dropped £1,568 in July 2024, before rising slightly to £1,717 in October, £1,738 in January 2025, £1,849 a year from April, and falling slightly to £1,720 from July. From October to December, the figure will rise slightly again to £1,755. The source is Ofgem.

The Ofgem cap is illustrated with a household using a "typical" amount of 11,500 kWh of gas and 2,700 kWh of electricity a year with a single bill for gas and electricity, settled by direct debit.

However, the amount used varies significantly between households, so the best way to calculate the change is to work out the percentage change from your own usual annual bill.

Analysts at the consultancy Cornwall Insight have predicted a 1% fall from the current cap to take effect in January, but for prices to then head back up in April.

The forecaster, widely respected for the accuracy of its predictions, said the main driver of energy bills was shifting from sky-high wholesale prices to the cost of overhauling and maintaining the country's energy networks.

Graphic showing how the energy usage of different sized households determines typical bills, with a low-use flat or one bedroom house using 7,500 kWh of gas and 1,800 kWh of electricity paying £1,266, a medium-use two or three-bedroom house using 11,500 kWh of gas and 2,700 kWh of electricity paying £1,775, and a high-use four or more bedroom house using 17,000 kWh of gas and 4,100 kWh of electricity paying £2,470. Calculations are based on the October 2025 price cap figures.

Charities say they are seeing people owing increasing levels of unpaid bills and charges to suppliers.

The total amount owed has reached a record £4.4bn, prompting plans from Ofgem to ensure energy companies write off some of that debt.

Up to £500m could be knocked off the total under plans that regulator Ofgem wants to take effect early next year.

Dhara Vyas, chief executive of Energy UK, which represents suppliers, anyone facing difficulties paying should contact their energy provider as soon as possible.

"We know that far too many people are struggling to pay for the energy they need to use," she said.

But she added that suppliers could help with efficient appliances, tailoring the tariff to customers' needs or ensuring people were on the correct benefits.

The government has hinted at extra cost-of-living support in the Budget on 26 November.

In the meantime, as the cold weather sets in, various tips are available to keep people warm while controlling costs, including clothing, insulation and heating rooms people are in rather than the whole home.

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