'Man City's golden transfer touch under intense scrutiny'

Manchester City and manager Pep Guardiola are wrestling with the biggest crisis they have faced since the Catalan arrived at Etihad Stadium in 2016.

As the scrutiny grows, a rare question is now being asked – have Manchester City's transfer and recruitment strategists taken their eyes off the ball after a period of unprecedented success?

Have they been caught out by failing to future-proof as the silverware piled up?

After years of almost flawless planning to maintain domestic domination and finally claim the Champions League crown in 2023, the golden hand that guided City in the transfer market does not seem quite so assured.

Since Guardiola joined in 2016, their total spend is £1.38bn, while the net spend of £525m is evidence of the club's ability to maximise sales and monetise their elite academy set-up.

The acquisitions of the phenomenon that is Erling Haaland and Croatia defender Josko Gvardiol cannot be questioned; young talent of the highest quality who were coveted by every club in Europe.

Jack Grealish's fortunes have fluctuated - he has one City goal in 2024 - after his £100m move from Aston Villa but he still played a key role when the treble of the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup was won in 2023.

Manuel Akanji has unquestionably been a bargain after his move from Borussia Dortmund for about £15m.

Question marks, however, hang elsewhere – particularly over the wisdom of letting Cole Palmer join Chelsea for £40m then sanctioning the sale of Argentina's World Cup-winning forward Julian Alvarez to Atletico Madrid.

It has left City's squad looking as vulnerable as at any time under Guardiola, leaving some of the decision-making under the microscope.

Kalvin Phillips' six-year £45m deal from Leeds in July 2022 resulted in just two league starts, playing only 380 minutes in the top flight, before being loaned to West Ham United then Ipswich Town.

Matheus Nunes came from Wolverhampton Wanderers for £53m in September 2023 but has made little impact. The 26-year-old started only seven Premier League games in his first season and three in this.

Jeremy Doku is a talented work in progress at just 22, but the £55m capture from Rennes in August 2023 has had injuries recently and only started 18 league games last season.

Guardiola, however, was clearly happy with the size and quality of his squad last summer. He only signed Brazil winger Savinho for up to £30m then brought back Ilkay Gundogan when he fell from favour at Barcelona.

Has this now been exposed as a mistake given the squad looks bare because of injury?

Guardiola prefers to work with a tighter squad of elite players and is notoriously reluctant to keep those who may wish to move on - often dispensing with them ruthlessly. But there has been an exodus of talent from Etihad Stadium that now looks like it could be returning to haunt the champions.

Chief among them is Palmer, who was agitating to move in his search for regular game time, but has been such a resounding success at Chelsea that privately Guardiola may wonder whether he should have stood firm.

Palmer was involved in 45 games for Chelsea last season, scoring 25 goals. He scored 22 of those in the Premier League, second only to Haaland's 27. He has already scored seven goals in 14 appearances this season.

Alvarez, so often the hard-working and selfless foil to Haaland, has also been missed as City search for the cutting edge that has been missing this season. He was a potent combination of work-rate and threat under Guardiola, scoring 17 goals in 49 appearances in 2022-23 and 19 goals in 54 appearances last season.

City banked the huge amount of £81m for Alvarez from Atletico Madrid but he has been sorely missed as the goals have dried up this term.

Former academy defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis, now thriving at Southampton, scored on his England debut against the Republic of Ireland but realistically would have struggled to play regularly at City.

Few would also take issue with City's decision to sell Raheem Sterling to Chelsea, along with Oleksandr Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus to Arsenal, the latter leaving after Haaland's arrival.

It will be all change in the summer with Guardiola's long-time friend and confidante from their days at Barcelona, Txiki Begiristain, leaving as director of football to be replaced by Hugo Viana.

It is hard to believe complacency crept into City's strategy, but there is no doubt the current evidence suggests Viana will need a greater hit rate than in recent years.

Guardiola dismisses the suggestion City have allowed their squad to get too long in the tooth, but this is an ageing group and miles on the clock finally appear to be taking their toll.

Former Liverpool defender and Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher, analysing City's 4-0 Spurs defeat said: "I did this same analysis two years ago on Jordan Henderson and Fabinho.

"What I’m talking about with Gundogan and [Mateo] Kovacic, this is not players out of form, this is not going to change. For Liverpool, the comparison was Jordan Henderson and Fabinho in those positions. They ended up moving on and Liverpool had to rebuild in midfield.

"That's what Manchester City are going to have to do. Whatever Pep thinks of, there is not enough legs in that midfield right now to change what we're seeing."

And how many times can players who have created a glorious era of domestic domination and European success return to the well with the same hunger and intensity after winning six Premier Leagues, the Champions League, two FA Cups, four League Cups, the Uefa Super Cup and the Club World Cup?

Kevin de Bruyne, 34 in June, is increasingly troubled by injuries and has cast doubt on his future at the club. He started 15 Premier League games last season, 26 in all competitions, and just four this season after his latest injury.

England defender Kyle Walker is 34 and has looked increasingly vulnerable this season, although he has also been carrying an injury.

Gundogan, also 34, has looked a shadow of the match-winning inspiration he was in his first spell after returning from Barcelona in the aftermath of Rodri's damaging injury.

Defender John Stones is 30, as are midfielders Bernardo Silva and Kovacic.

Measured by Opta stats, City's trademark intensity and running has dropped this season. It has declined from 113.26km per game last term to 109.6km in this campaign, which is also the lowest since their run of successive titles started.

City have also been regularly exposed being caught on the counter-attack this season, facing 1.2 shots per game on the break - by far the most under Guardiola.

Jurgen Klopp called his Anfield rebuild 'Liverpool 2.0' as Fabinho and Henderson were replaced as the heartbeat by Wataru Endo, Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, having failed in moves for Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia.

On Monday, Guardiola said again he just needed his injured players back, but has this version of Manchester City reached its own '2.0'?

BBC Sport asked Paul McDonald of FootballTransfers.com to suggest where City might find value in the January transfer market, using their 'Estimated Transfer Value' measurement.

The Football Transfers ETV is an algorithm using more than 600,000 historical transfers, 220,000 players and key metrics such as skill, potential, recent performance, level of competition, contract length, position, and age. It is designed as a guide of a player's worth, rather than an inflated market value.

Forwards:

Jonathan David (ETV £28.9m)

The Lille striker could be of interest. Once valued well over £50m, he's out of contract next summer so should be available cheaply in January. The Canada forward has four Champions League goals from his first four games, plus seven goals in Ligue 1. He can play with or without Haaland if Guardiola wanted to change style, and is a genuine goal threat - something City are seriously lacking right now with their almost total reliance on Haaland. Could they share the load?

Omar Marmoush (ETV £18.8m)

The Egyptian is scoring goals and his value has doubled since the start of the season - if he keeps this up it will double again by the season's end. He can play across the forward line. He's expected to leave Eintracht Frankfurt this season, but - and it is a big but - he's 25 and this season is very much the exception in his career so far. It's not particularly like City to target what you would call 'flavour of the month' signings like this, but this is also a situation they have rarely been in of late.

Liam Delap (ETV £27.5m)

The 21-year-old only signed for Ipswich from City in July on a five-year contract in a deal worth up to £20m. City are notoriously prudent at inserting clauses into sales to ensure they get sell-on value and there will definitely be a buy-back clause in the contract too, although how much it is, is difficult to say.

Normally I would suggest Delap's sample size of six goals in 12 Premier League games would be too small for City to move to bring him back so soon, but it is a slightly more desperate situation than they are used to. He would fulfil a similar role to David, in that he would be a direct replacement for Haaland. But do City even want to replace Haaland? Do they think he can play every single game? Maybe their focus is on other areas.

Defenders:

Ousmane Diomande (ETV £7.9m)

The 20-year-old Ivorian at Sporting would add physicality, something City have been lacking recently. He's won more than 70% of his aerial duels in Portugal. City have been shopping in Portugal in the past - Ruben Dias and Ederson – and there might be an opportunity in January now that Ruben Amorim has left. Although Sporting players always command massive fees, he has less experience at a top level, so while he will likely be more expensive than his low ETV, it could be a deal they could get done.

Pedro Porro (ETV £29.7m)

The Tottenham defender, 25, might be a left-field option at right-back. City might look to bring him back to the club after originally signing him in 2019. Porro can play possession football - he does it for Spurs - and he's got Premier League experience. Has a fairly long deal until 2028, but his profile clearly fitted City before and he's only gained more experience since leaving for Sporting in 2022. But Tottenham will not sell to a rival cheaply - this fee would likely be too much for City to accept for a player they let leave once before.

Midfield:

Carlos Baleba (ETV £19.7m)

The ETV of the latest Brighton midfielder off their production line is set to rise again significantly as he gains more experience at Premier League level.

The 20-year-old Cameroon player is more of a ball carrier than someone like Rodri and one of City's issues has been his protection of the back four being missing. But if City want a presence in the middle third, given how lacklustre they have looked, he's an option. Given Brighton's ability to extract value plus City's urgency, they would likely demand a fee well in excess of our current valuation. January's not a time when deals like this happen so I'd be very surprised.

Samuele Ricci (ETV £12.8m)

The Torino and Italy midfielder could fill the Rodri void and he's been linked with City in the past. He's 23, he's got decent size to him and he's OK in possession, though he'd need to scale up massively to fit in with the Guardiola system. His contract expires in 18 months, hence his lower value. He's also never competed in Europe nor played for Italy. Is this too much of a step up?

Martin Zubimendi (ETV £32.9m)

The most likely midfield reinforcement would probably be Real Sociedad's Zubimendi. Liverpool triggered his £51.5m release clause in the summer only for the 25-year-old to reject the move.

He's Rodri's replacement for Spain. Brilliant in possession, tenacious without the ball too and would restore some balance to the City midfield.

Who to avoid?

As Manchester United have discovered in the past, being in a position in the market where you are being reactive puts you on the back foot, and potentially doing deals in January is always a breeding ground to pay too much for a wrong fit.

As the January 2024 transfer window proved – with spending down £715m compared to 12 months previously - teams are increasingly reluctant to do big business in January. So some of the lower-value players here - while they would certainly pay over the odds - might be more palatable than going big mid-season.