Where F1 title may be won and lost in three-way fight

The Formula 1 drivers' championship will be decided in a three-way showdown that takes place on Sunday on Abu Dhabi's Yas Marina circuit.

Lando Norris leads Red Bull's Max Verstappen by 12 points and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri by 16 as they head to a track that has hosted a number of dramatic climaxes in the past.

Setting the grand prix up perfectly, they have qualified at the front of the grid, in the order Verstappen-Norris-Piastri.

Norris, with his significant points advantage, goes into the weekend as an on-paper favourite.

But Verstappen has won five of the eight races before Abu Dhabi and is in a far simpler position than two drivers operating out of the same McLaren garage.

The McLaren has been the fastest car on average over the season. It has a significant advantage on average qualifying pace - 0.274 seconds over the season, and 0.203secs over the past eight races.

But wins are split evenly between all three drivers this year - Norris, Verstappen and Piastri all have seven each. The other two grand prix victories have been taken by Mercedes' George Russell.

McLaren have dominated the constructors' championship, which they clinched at the Singapore Grand Prix on the first weekend in October, with six races remaining.

But that is a reflection of having two competitive drivers in a consistently race-winning car. No other team has had the luxury of those two factors together.

Verstappen, by contrast, has scored 93% of all his team's points this year - team-mate Yuki Tsunoda has been nowhere near him and of no help whatsoever in the Dutchman's title campaign, and has been dropped by Red Bull for next season as a result.

Competitiveness has ebbed and flowed through the season, and each car has specific strengths.

Verstappen won the Qatar Grand Prix last weekend only because of McLaren's strategy error. Otherwise, that track's long-duration medium- and high-speed corners were perfect McLaren territory.

Abu Dhabi also has some long corners - especially the hairpin on to the first long straight and the long Turn Nine at the end of the second main straight.

But the McLaren is not at its best in the sort of short-duration, 90-degree corners that comprise the final sector around the marina and hotel, or when braking into chicanes.

And while Verstappen was in scintillating form in taking pole position, the McLaren has traditionally this season shown an advantage with tyre usage, which is often a factor at Abu Dhabi.

Verstappen has won four times in Abu Dhabi, taking every race victory from 2020-23.

But his win in 2021 was extremely controversial - that was the title showdown with Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes, where Verstappen won only after the then-race director made up the rules during a late safety-car period.

It's also not a fair comparison between the three drivers.

For a start, this is only Piastri's third season in F1. Norris has been in F1 since 2019 and Verstappen since 2015.

But Norris did not have an even vaguely competitive car until 2023, whereas Verstappen has been winning races on and off since 2016.

And Norris was dominant on his way to victory in Abu Dhabi last year.

McLaren's task is the more complicated. They have two drivers in contention and have pledged to allow them both to compete fairly until one is no longer in contention for the championship.

But the team's clear stated goal is for one of their drivers to win the title - and they don't mind which. So don't rule out team tactics of one kind or another at McLaren.

For example, if Verstappen is winning and Piastri in the top three with Norris fourth, that would make the Dutchman champion. But if Piastri dropped back to let Norris into the top three, Norris would win the title.

McLaren have made it clear that they would be prepared to take this - or another - action if required.

Chief executive officer Zak Brown said on Friday: "We're going to use common sense. We're not going to throw away a drivers' championship over a fifth and sixth place or whatever if one of the drivers does not have the opportunity (to win the title)."

Brown is saying that in such circumstances, McLaren would ask Piastri to aid Norris - but only at such a point when it's clear the Australian's hopes were over.

At Red Bull, Verstappen is on his own. Except, that is, if a McLaren finds itself somehow behind one of the other three Red Bull-owned cars - Tsunoda and the two Racing Bulls of Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson.

If that's the case, expect them to make themselves as hard as possible to pass - as Sergio Perez did to Hamilton in 2021, ultimately playing a decisive role in how the race played out.

The pressure is certainly greater on Norris than anyone else.

All year, McLaren have looked like the team who will deliver the drivers' title, and he is the man leading the championship.

At the same time, this is his first chance to win the title, and McLaren's first drivers' title chance since Hamilton won in 2008.

Yes, Hamilton was in mathematical contention in 2010, but 24 points behind with only 25 available, so not really in the picture.

In addition, McLaren have been fundamentally restructured since then, and while team principal Andrea Stella has been involved in title fights previously - working with Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso - most of the team have not.

Their relative rawness has shown at times this year, especially in Qatar, when they were the only team not to take the opportunity to pit under a safety car, and lost the win as a result.

There will likely have been some soul-searching and in-depth analysis in the past days as a consequence. Some anxiety and nervousness would be understandable.

Red Bull and Verstappen, meanwhile, are fully versed in this situation. They have won the past four drivers' titles and are a ruthless, finely honed winning machine.

And as a team and driver who have done it before, and in addition did not expect to be in this situation, the pressure is off.

Verstappen has repeatedly said "it won't change my life" whether he wins or not.

But he says he approach the race with only one thought: "All out. I have nothing to lose. I will attack."