Why is St Johnstone's 16-year top-flight stay at risk?

St Johnstone have been mainstays of the Scottish Premiership since 2009 – but their 16-year stay is under severe threat.

"We have a big, big fight ahead of us" was the stark assessment of manager Simo Valakari after their 3-0 defeat by Hibernian last Saturday – a result that moved his side ever closer to the trap door.

You do not have to delve too deeply into the numbers to see the bother they are in.

Five points adrift at the foot of the table, they have just seven games remaining, with the next of those at home to leaders and reigning champions Celtic.

St Johnstone's plight is stark – but how has a club that has for so long been part of the Premiership furniture got into such trouble?

Valakari was appointed in October with the side sitting 10th.

While they have gone backwards in terms of league position since, the Finn has been praised for trying to produce a team playing better football.

It has taken a while for that to be reflected in an upturn of results, but since the end of January, they have lost only three of their last eight league games and have navigated a route to the Scottish Cup semi-finals.

However, has the damage already been done in terms of their top-division status?

Arithmetically, of course, they can still turn things round, but they need to do their bit while hoping others falter.

While the finger is usually pointed at the manager – and he does have to shoulder some blame - you also must bear in mind that Valakari was brought in with the summer transfer window long since closed.

The Finn has largely had to work with what was already there and, while he was able to make some changes to his squad in January, turning round a ship that was already heading for choppy waters, in a short period of time, is a big ask.

Are the factors that have led to St Johnstone's plight more deep rooted?

Former midfielder Murray Davidson, who spent 14 years at McDiarmid Park, believes "it has been building for years".

St Johnstone had been a picture of consistency since returning to the top division under Derek McInnes in 2009, but Davidson says they went from being "the most stable club" to being the "most unstable in Scottish football" by the time he retired in summer 2023.

Tommy Wright presided over a seven-year spell during which he led them to their first Scottish Cup win in 2014, as well as European campaigns and top-six finishes.

Those foundations were initially built on by assistant and successor Callum Davidson, who oversaw a remarkable domestic cup double in season 2020-21.

However, such stability has been lacking of late and it is perhaps no surprise that it has coincided with a downturn in fortunes.

Following Davidson's near three-year spell, the club appointed another rookie boss - former striker Steven MacLean, who lasted just seven months.

St Johnstone then turned to veteran Craig Levein, who was in the post for 10 months before being replaced by Valakari in October – the Finn becoming their fourth manager in 19 months.

Regularly changing managers, all with their own ideas, and the inevitable churn of players that comes with it rarely delivers success.

"There were players signed who were nowhere near good enough," Davidson tels BBC Scotland.

"And, when we signed players that weren't good enough, the next window it was 'we need to sign four or five players'. It was a snowball effect for five or six windows."

Overly nearly four decades, St Johnstone were transformed under the ownership of Geoff Brown.

Davidson says the businessman and son Steve, who succeeded his father as chairman, "were unbelievable for me and for St Johnstone".

He suggests "there was a core of 13, 14, 15 players" and that they only needed to add three or four each season to ensure continuity.

"They weren't the biggest-paying club, and we weren't going to get the ball and play 30 passes, but everybody bought in to what was successful and what it meant to people," Davidson said.

"Towards the end of my career, that wasn't happening. You were going in, there were two or three of us left, there were people coming in who didn't know the league, didn't know what the club was about."

Having announced in December 2022 that he was selling the club, it was not until summer 2024 that American businessman Adam Webb took over from Geoff Brown.

There will inevitably have been a period of uncertainty in the intervening 18 months – and uncertainty rarely creates an environment conducive to success.

"The last eight, nine, 10 windows, they have had to panic buy," Davidson adds.

Now a St Johnstone fan looking in, the club legend hopes they can return to the stability and success of the not too distant past.

With relatively new owners at the helm, and with a manager who wants to try to play the right way, the future could still be bright for the McDiarmid Park club.

However, a lot of that may depend on whether Valakari and his players can produce a Houdini-style Premiership survival act over the coming weeks.